Step 1 to feed a billion people: stop losing farmland.
Farmland we lost: America lost 6000 acres of farmland and ranchland every single day between 1994 and 2023 according to the USDA. Between that time, we lost a whopping 80 million acres of land. The American Farmland Trust in its report “Farms Under Threat 2040: Choosing an abundant future” put this number at 2000 acres/ day, but it doesn’t quite disclose its calculations. Even if we were to go with the lower number, we are talking about losing 20 million acres of land in the next 25 years. Ignoring the side effects of this loss to employment, agricultural output, global competitiveness, and the environment and viewing it purely from the point of view of food security, this land loss offers some interesting insights.
People that one-acre feeds: Depending on the model that is used and the dietary considerations, estimates of how many people an acre of land can feed range wildly from 1 to 30! Of course, I am not in the habit of disputing the infinite wisdom of people who have provided these estimates but go along with me here.
The simple math: So now I come to the critical question of how many people could we have fed if we didn’t lose the farmland that we did, and the answer lies in the table below:
| People that one-acre feeds | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30 | ||
| Farmland loss | 2000 acres per day | 20 million | 600 million |
| 6000 acres per day | 60 million | 1.8 billion | |
So how many people is that really you ask? At 20 million we are talking about feeding Sri Lanka; at 60 million, we are feeding South Africa, at 600 million we are feeding twice the size of the US and at 1.8 billion we are feeding India and the US.
My solution to the world food security challenge begins with the basics. Secure the farmland that we have, connect it to the best stewards, the farmer, and keep it productive and nature will take care of the rest.
The AFT at the USDA may not agree on the numbers, but they both surely agree on one thing. No farm, no food!
